The Future Shopper is VML's essential guide to the commerce landscape
As a metamorphic current surges into 2026, VML's groundbreaking 12th edition of The Future 100 reveals the global consumer insights and macro trends redefining industries, markets and human experience in the year ahead.
To help you navigate the many takeaways from the report, we’ve created downloadable vertical cuts for key sectors including Retail, Technology, B2B, Travel & Hospitality, Commerce, Luxury, Automotive and more to ignite your imagination and equip you with the foresight to drive growth in a rapidly transforming world.
Enjoy this insightful glimpse into what's next.
Willkommen zur zehnten und bislang umfangreichsten Ausgabe des „Future Shopper“. Grundlage ist eine Studie mit 28.000 Konsument:innen in 17 Ländern und insgesamt 2,66 Millionen Datenpunkten.
Im Mittelpunkt steht in diesem Jahr ein deutlicher „Pragmatismus-Pivot“. Angesichts des anhaltenden Drucks durch steigende Lebenshaltungskosten wenden sich Shopper von überkomplexen digitalen Neuerungen ab und legen stattdessen Wert auf Geschwindigkeit, Zuverlässigkeit und reibungslose Abläufe. Gleichzeitig halten sie an kleinen alltäglichen „heiligen Luxusmomenten“ fest. Die Vertriebskanäle stabilisieren sich bei einem nahezu ausgeglichenen Verhältnis von 50:50 zwischen Online- und stationärem Handel. Marktplätze setzen den Maßstab für Convenience; Marken- und Händler-Websites spielen vor allem dann eine wichtige Rolle, wenn Menschen mehr Tiefe suchen – etwa Information, Service, Loyalität und Community.
KI verändert grundlegend, wie Produkte entdeckt und Kaufentscheidungen getroffen werden. Klassischen Suchergebnissen wird zunehmend weniger vertraut, da Werbung dort immer mehr Raum einnimmt. Gleichzeitig entwickeln sich KI-generierte Antworten zu neuen Einstiegspunkten – und die Sichtbarkeit innerhalb dieser Antworten wird zu einem neuen Wettbewerbsfeld. Konsument:innen nutzen zunehmend dialogbasierte KI, ziehen jedoch klare Grenzen beim Datenschutz und reagieren kritisch auf minderwertige synthetische Inhalte. Agentic Commerce etabliert sich zunächst vor allem in risikoarmen Kategorien mit regelmäßig wiederkehrenden Käufen.
Wer heute erfolgreich sein will, muss emotionale Relevanz mit kompromisslos guter transaktionaler Performance verbinden.
Der Druck durch steigende Lebenshaltungskosten hat die Prioritäten verschoben. Shopper erwarten attraktive Preise, Warenverfügbarkeit und einfache Wege zum Kauf – und halten gleichzeitig an ihren „heiligen Luxusmomenten“ fest. Emotionen spielen weiterhin eine Rolle, aber nur dann, wenn das Einkaufserlebnis reibungslos und bezahlbar ist.
Die Dominanz des „Digital First“-Ansatzes weicht einer echten Omnichannel-Balance. Online- und stationäre Kanäle nähern sich einem Verhältnis von 50:50 an, während gleichzeitig klarer wird, welche Rolle die jeweiligen Kanäle im Kaufprozess spielen.
Klassischen Suchergebnissen wird zunehmend weniger vertraut, da Werbung immer mehr Raum einnimmt. Gleichzeitig entwickeln sich KI-Antworten und Marktplätze zu Gatekeepern entlang des gesamten Funnels. Die Sichtbarkeit in KI-Antworten wird zum neuen Wettbewerbsfeld.
82 % haben bereits KI ausprobiert, doch die meisten Anwendungen finden bislang in Bereichen mit geringem Risiko statt. Agentic Commerce – bei dem KI Produkte empfiehlt und Käufe durchführt – beginnt sich zu etablieren, zunächst vor allem bei risikoarmen, regelmäßig wiederkehrenden Käufen.
Konsument:innen vertrauen KI, wenn sie ihnen einen echten Mehrwert bietet. Minderwertige synthetische Inhalte und Ergebnisse, die wie bezahlte Werbung wirken, stoßen dagegen auf Ablehnung. Vertrauen entsteht durch Governance, Authentizität und nachvollziehbare Belege – nicht durch noch mehr Content.
Storytelling gewinnt Aufmerksamkeit, operative Zuverlässigkeit schützt den Markenwert. Preis, Verfügbarkeit, Geschwindigkeit und das zuverlässige Einhalten von Versprechen sind die eigentlichen Hüter einer Marke.
VMLs „Future Shopper“-Report herunterladen
From The Future Shopper V10 and wider market signals, these macro‑trends are shaping the next phase of commerce:
The pragmatism pivot - Shoppers under pressure prioritize price, availability, and simple paths to buy—while still protecting small daily luxuries.
True omnichannel balance - Spend has stabilized near a 50/50 split between online and in‑store; growth now comes from share capture and journey orchestration, not channel expansion.
New gatekeepers: AI answers and marketplaces - Traditional search is harder to trust; visibility inside AI answers (Generative Engine Optimization) and marketplace discoverability are the new must‑wins.
Agentic commerce starts small - AI recommending - and beginning to buy - emerges first in low‑risk, repeat categories; prepare product data, policies, budgets, and guardrails now.
Marketplaces as baseline, with softer loyalty - They still set the standard for convenience and fulfillment, but price‑driven cross‑shopping is rising; owned channels must deliver depth, service, and community.
Social commerce: two funnels, modest share - Entertainment‑led TikTok journeys and marketplace‑style Facebook paths both matter; trust signals and native checkout are critical to conversion.
Promise‑keeping beats raw speed - Two‑hour expectations are spreading, but delivery accuracy and consistent fulfillment drive loyalty more than fastest‑possible SLAs.
Stores at two speeds - Design for fast, frictionless mission trips and slower, hands‑on discovery; commit to at least one mode with excellence, support both only if you can sustain standards.
Regulatory and governance readiness - Data privacy, reviews integrity, product traceability, and AI governance (content and recommendations) are becoming table stakes for trust and compliance.
Big picture: The Future Shopper 2026 shows a mature, near 50/50 balance between online and in‑store within our online‑engaged sample (51% online, down from 53% in 2025). Growth now comes less from channel expansion and more from share capture and journey orchestration.
Global sales outlook: External trackers still point to steady e‑commerce growth:
2023: ~$5.8T (actuals)
2024: ~$6.3–$6.9T
2026: ~$7.4–$8.1T (range reflects differences between Insider Intelligence/eMarketer and Statista)
2027: ~>$7.9T, crossing the ~$8T mark in most forecasts
Share of total retail is expected to rise from roughly 20% in 2024 to ~22–23% by 2027 (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer).
Where the growth comes from: APAC remains the volume engine (with China dominant), while fastest growth rates are in mobile‑first emerging markets across Southeast Asia, India, LATAM and parts of MENA, as logistics and payments infrastructure broaden.
What to watch in 2026–2027:
Marketplaces remain the baseline for convenience; brand/retailer sites win on depth and loyalty.
AI shifts discovery: visibility in AI answers (Generative Engine Optimization) matters alongside traditional SEO.
Agentic commerce starts in low‑risk, repeat categories (e.g., grocery/household), expanding as trust and guardrails improve.
Mobile is the organizing screen; closing the mobile conversion gap is a primary revenue lever.
Note: Platform estimates vary by methodology (what’s included in B2C, FX assumptions, and data cut‑offs). For a single‑point headline, Statista places 2026 around $8.1T; Insider Intelligence/eMarketer sits closer to ~$7.4–$7.5T.
Strong, but more contested. Growth continues, yet the easy gains are over. The next phase is about share capture, operational discipline, and showing up where discovery now happens (including AI answers). In the near-term (12–24 months), we can expect:
Omnichannel orchestration beats channel expansion - With spend stabilizing near a 50/50 split, growth comes from running store and site as one system: stores as media and micro‑fulfillment, digital to pre‑sell and promise. Design stores for two speeds (mission‑mode and hands‑on discovery) and commit to at least one with excellence.
AI reshapes discovery and conversion AI answers join marketplaces as gatekeepers. Winning means AI visibility (often called Generative Engine Optimization), clean product data, third‑party citations, and native shoppability. Expect early agentic commerce in low‑risk repeat categories (grocery/household) where trust and guardrails are clearer.
Promise‑keeping becomes the loyalty engine - Two‑hour expectations spread, but accuracy outperforms raw speed. Set and keep precise delivery promises, expose real inventory, and treat returns, substitutions, and updates as brand moments.
Mobile is the organizing screen - fix the conversion gap - Prioritize sub‑second performance, native wallets, guest checkout, autofill, preference recall, and persistent carts. Earn the right to an app (high‑frequency, membership value); otherwise make mobile web great.
Retail media and measurement mature - Retail media keeps expanding, but budgets follow proof. Plan for incrementality measurement, clean‑room collaboration, and product‑level profitability (contribution margin after media, delivery, and returns).
Data, trust, and AI governance - Shift to first‑party/consented data, verified reviews, transparent returns, and clear AI disclosures. Low‑quality synthetic content (“AI slop”) and sponsored‑feeling results erode trust.
Sustainability moves to “greener by default” - Consumers still care, but expect businesses to carry more of the cost. Embed repair, refill, resale, lighter packaging, and plain‑language proof; avoid guilt‑based messaging.
Directionally: discovery becomes conversational, baskets get smarter (and more automated), and trust signals decide conversion. The shift will be uneven - fastest with younger, mobile‑first shoppers and in low‑risk, repeat categories. In the near term (12–24 months), we can expect:
Describe‑and‑decide discovery - Shoppers increasingly “ask an AI” to find, compare, and shortlist. 54% say AI chat helps them discover products they wouldn’t have found otherwise; 46% have changed which brands they consider because of an AI recommendation.
Tighter consideration, higher verification - AI narrows options faster, but shoppers still verify: 58% cross‑check AI recommendations elsewhere. Clear reviews, returns, delivery promises, and third‑party citations will be the conversion hinge.
Early agentic behaviors in repeat purchases - Automation starts where risk is low: grocery and household replenishment (the leading categories consumers are comfortable delegating). Think AI‑built carts, price checks, and “find me the best total delivered price.”
AI answers as a new gatekeeper - Visibility inside AI answers (often called Generative Engine Optimization) joins SEO and marketplace rankings as a must‑win. Structured product data, accurate availability/pricing, and credible citations matter.
In‑store assistance gets real - Consumers rank AI recommendations more important in‑store (74%) than online (58%). Expect wayfinding, stock checks, and side‑by‑side comparisons at the shelf via apps, kiosks, and smart screens.
Content scrutiny rises - Low‑quality synthetic content erodes trust: 49% lose trust when product images look AI‑generated; 48% skip content they suspect is synthetic. Use AI behind the scenes; keep product representation human‑grade.
