Safe haven travel

Shifting geopolitical dynamics are prompting travellers to rethink their vacation plans, often with unexpected consequences for destinations worldwide.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has illustrated how government restrictions on visas and permits can swiftly alter travel accessibility for large groups of spectators and participants. But beyond specific events, heightened international tensions and evolving foreign policy decisions are influencing how citizens perceive and select their holiday destinations, with factors ranging from rising costs due to global economic instability to growing awareness of polarized international sentiment.

Recent data (from Go Ahead Tours and Qualtrics Research) shows that safety is of paramount concern for travelers, with 78% of Americans and Canadians expressing concerns, including over anti-American sentiment. McKinsey also noted in April 2026 that around 60 to 70% of travelers across the U.S., Germany, and the UK said they were adjusting their travel plans over a six-month horizon, with safety “the dominant decision driver.”

Even the most affluent travelers, typically unconstrained by such concerns, are rethinking their itineraries. Luxury lifestyle experts are noting the unease: Stuart McNeill, CEO of global luxury lifestyle management service Knightsbridge Circle told Vanity Fair that there is “a lack of confidence in the systems around travel, airlines, infrastructure, and how seamless their journeys will be.”

A sunny, luxurious outdoor resort pool area featuring a long, clear blue swimming pool. Alongside the pool are rows of orange-and-white striped lounge chairs shaded by retro-style yellow umbrellas with white scalloped trim. Lush green palm trees and foliage are visible in the background under a bright, clear sky.

The sunny inner courtyard of the Alcázar of Seville, Spain, showing the Courtyard of the Maidens (Patio de las Doncellas). The courtyard features a white tiled floor, a central fountain, and is surrounded by stunning Mudéjar architecture with intricate plasterwork arches, columns, and an upper-level gallery under a bright blue sky.

A scenic, dusk view of whitewashed buildings nestled on a cliffside in Santorini, Greece. Soft lights glow from within the architecture as the sun sets over the ocean, casting a peaceful, pastel-colored gradient across the sky.

An elevated, panoramic view of Petani Beach in Cephalonia, Greece. The image showcases a sweeping white-sand crescent beach meeting calm, turquoise waters. Steep, green-covered cliffs line the coast, stretching out into the deep blue Ionian Sea under a clear sky.

1. Kimpton Los Monteros Marbella, which opened on the Costa del Sol last year. Courtesy IHG Hotels & Resorts 2. Alcázar in Seville, courtesy of the Spanish Tourist Office in the UK 3. Santorini at dusk © GNTO / Y. Skoulas 4. Petanoi beach, Kefalonia © GNTO / S. Mourelatou

Travel and airline operators have noted that European hotspots like Spain's Costa del Sol, Greece, and Italy are benefiting from a so-called “safe haven” effect, while McKinsey has reported an uptick in hotel occupancies in resorts in Morocco, Tunisia and Spain.

Conversely, regions perceived as closer to or more impacted by ongoing geopolitical instability are experiencing significant declines in U.S. visitors. Countries like Israel, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, despite its recent luxury tourism push, have all reported substantial drops in American tourist numbers.

Some nations are now actively adapting policies to attract more travelers in a fast-evolving travel map. For instance, China recently expanded its visa-free entry program to include citizens from Canada and the U.K.

The Intelligence Take

While geopolitical turmoil is affecting travel destinations, it’s clear that consumer appetite for exploration is resilient. VML data for the Future 100 2026 shows that travel remains deeply significant to people, with 88% globally saying that ‘travel is about something more meaningful than just a holiday.’ For brands, the opportunity lies in meeting the needs for safety, flexibility and reassurance, while still delivering compelling experiences that meet the persistent demand for discovery.

Main image: Kimpton Los Monteros Marbella, which opened on the Costa del Sol last year. Courtesy IHG Hotels & Resorts.