51%
of spending is online, reflecting a move to true omnichannel balance today
The Future Shopper 2026
The 10th‑edition benchmark for commerce: consumer shifts, the pragmatism pivot, balanced channels, AI‑led discovery and answers, marketplaces, social commerce, mobile, and loyalty.
Download VML's Future Shopper report
Download the report
Introducing The Future Shopper V10
Welcome to our 10th and largest edition, based on research with 28,000 consumers across 17 countries and 2.66 million data points.
This year’s story is a decisive "pragmatism pivot." Under persistent cost-of-living pressure, shoppers are rejecting over‑engineered digital novelties for speed, reliability, and friction‑free execution, but still protect small daily “sacred luxuries.” Channels are stabilizing around a near 50/50 online–in‑store balance. Marketplaces set the convenience baseline; brand and retailer sites matter when people need depth: education, service, loyalty, and community.
AI is reshaping discovery and decision-making. Traditional search is harder to trust as ads crowd results, while AI answers are becoming new entry points - and visibility in AI answers is a new battleground. Consumers are adopting conversational AI but draw clear lines on data privacy and push back on low‑quality synthetic content. Agentic commerce is establishing itself first in low‑risk, repeat categories.
Winning now means balancing emotional resonance with uncompromising transactional performance.
Register for our exclusive "Future Shopper 2026" 4As Webinar happening October 6
Headline stats
26%
of shoppers’ time in-store is spent in “mission mode”, and 47% would prefer zero human interaction
82%
have used AI; with 50% preferring to tell an AI what they want, view tailored options, and buy in one place rather than browsing retailer sites
58%
cross-check AI recommendations before purchasing, with 46% changing brands they consider based on an AI recommendation
37%
of consumers expect delivery in under two hours - up from 32%
60%
have bought on social, yet social accounts for only 2.78% of purchases in the customer journey.
Leading themes uncovered
The pragmatism pivot
Cost‑of‑living pressure has reset priorities. Shoppers demand price, stock, clear paths to buy - and still protect “sacred luxuries”. Emotion still matters, but only if the experience is smooth and affordable.
True omnichannel balance
Digital‑first dominance is giving way to true omnichannel balance, with channels settling into a near 50/50 online/in‑store split, and more clarity around their roles.
Fragmented journeys, new gatekeepers
Search is harder to trust as ads crowd results, while AI answers and marketplaces act as full‑funnel gatekeepers. Visibility in AI answers is the new battleground.
AI: adoption high, usage mundane (for now)
82% have tried AI, but most usage is low stakes. Agentic commerce (AI recommending and buying) is emerging, beginning in low‑risk, repeat categories.
The AI trust paradox (and AI slop)
Consumers trust AI when it helps but punish low‑quality synthetic content and sponsored‑feeling results. Governance, authenticity, and visible proof - not more output - earn trust.
Brand magic plus operational excellence
Storytelling wins attention; operational reliability protects equity. Price, stock, speed, and accurate promises are the real brand guardians.
Physical retail at two speeds
In‑store time splits between mission‑mode speed and slower, hands‑on discovery. Recognize the distinction and commit to at least one mode with excellence.
Delivery: speed matters, promise‑keeping wins
Two‑hour expectations are spreading beyond food. The differentiator isn’t being the fastest; it’s making (and keeping) the right promise.
Mobile is the organizing screen but still under-delivering
Mobile leads in usage but lags in experience. Fix the basics and treat mobile improvements as a revenue lever, not a UX nice‑to‑have.
Influence is shifting to two camps
Family remains the top human influence; AI is rising as a neutral product‑finder. Human creators still matter where real‑world context is critical (e.g. beauty, fit).
Social commerce: real intent, small share, big opportunity
Most shoppers have tried buying on social, but conversion remains modest. The unlock is trust and native checkout across two funnels.
Marketplaces: the baseline but showing hairline cracks
They still win for convenience, but price‑driven shoppers are willing to cross‑shop. Invest in marketplace excellence, and define unique roles for owned channels.
Personalization: value first or forget it
The most valued “personalization” is financial (offers, replenishment). In‑store personalization only works when it’s effortless; otherwise it’s ignored.
Food & Drink is the future’s test bed
Younger shoppers fragment spend across rapid delivery, convenience, and takeout. Distribution should follow actual behavior, not legacy shelf assumptions.
Sustainability: values persist yet fatigue is real
Shoppers want greener options but expect businesses to carry more of the cost and make choices simpler (in plain language).
Self-Commercialization
Saddled with debt, many cash-conscious consumers are open to commercializing their private data (incl. DNA), bodies, and more.
Essential insights: Answers to the big questions on e‑commerce
From The Future Shopper V10 and wider market signals, these macro‑trends are shaping this phase of commerce:
The pragmatism pivot - Shoppers under pressure prioritize price, availability, and simple paths to buy - while still protecting small daily luxuries.
True omnichannel balance - Spend has stabilized near a 50/50 split between online and in‑store; growth now comes from share capture and journey orchestration, not channel expansion.
New gatekeepers: AI answers and marketplaces - Traditional search is harder to trust; visibility inside AI answers (Generative Engine Optimization) and marketplace discoverability are the new must‑wins.
Agentic commerce starts small - AI recommending - and beginning to buy - emerges first in low‑risk, repeat categories; prepare product data, policies, budgets, and guardrails now.
Marketplaces as baseline, with softer loyalty - They still set the standard for convenience and fulfillment, but price‑driven cross‑shopping is rising; owned channels must deliver depth, service, and community.
Social commerce: two funnels, modest share - Entertainment‑led TikTok journeys and marketplace‑style Facebook paths both matter; trust signals and native checkout are critical to conversion.
Promise‑keeping beats raw speed - Two‑hour expectations are spreading, but delivery accuracy and consistent fulfillment drive loyalty more than fastest‑possible SLAs.
Stores at two speeds - Design for fast, frictionless mission trips and slower, hands‑on discovery; commit to at least one mode with excellence, support both only if you can sustain standards.
Regulatory and governance readiness - Data privacy, reviews integrity, product traceability, and AI governance (content and recommendations) are becoming table stakes for trust and compliance.
Big picture: The Future Shopper 2026 survey (based on a digitally-engaged audience) shows a mature, near 50/50 balance between online and in‑store within our online‑engaged sample (51% online, down from 53% in 2025). Growth now comes less from channel expansion and more from share capture and journey orchestration.
Global sales outlook - External trackers still point to steady e‑commerce growth:
- 2023: ~$5.8T (actuals)
- 2024: ~$6.3–$6.9T
- 2026: ~$7.4–$8.1T (range reflects differences between Insider Intelligence/eMarketer and Statista)
- 2027: ~>$7.9T, crossing the ~$8T mark in most forecasts
- Share of total retail is expected to rise from roughly 20% in 2024 to ~22–23% by 2027 (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer).
Note: Platform estimates vary by methodology (what’s included in B2C, FX assumptions, and data cut‑offs). For a single‑point headline, Statista places 2026 around $8.1T; Insider Intelligence/eMarketer sits closer to ~$7.4–$7.5T.
Where the growth comes from: APAC remains the volume engine (with China dominant), while fastest growth rates are in mobile‑first emerging markets across Southeast Asia, India, LATAM and parts of MENA, as logistics and payments infrastructure broaden.
What to watch in 2026–2027:
- Marketplaces remain the baseline for convenience; brand/retailer sites win on depth and loyalty.
- AI shifts discovery: visibility in AI answers (Generative Engine Optimization) matters alongside traditional SEO.
- Agentic commerce starts in low‑risk, repeat categories (e.g., grocery/household), expanding as trust and guardrails improve.
- Mobile is the organizing screen; closing the mobile conversion gap is a primary revenue lever.
Strong, but more contested. Growth continues, yet the easy gains are over. The next phase is about share capture, operational discipline, and showing up where discovery now happens (including AI answers). In the near-term (12–24 months), our Future Shopper findings indicate:
Omnichannel orchestration beats channel expansion - With spend stabilizing near a 50/50 split, growth comes from running store and site as one system: stores as media and micro‑fulfillment, digital to pre‑sell and promise. Design stores for two speeds (mission‑mode and hands‑on discovery) and commit to at least one with excellence.
AI reshapes discovery and conversion AI answers join marketplaces as gatekeepers. Winning means AI visibility (often called Generative Engine Optimization), clean product data, third‑party citations, and native shoppability. Expect early agentic commerce in low‑risk repeat categories (grocery/household) where trust and guardrails are clearer.
Promise‑keeping becomes the loyalty engine - Two‑hour delivery expectations spread, but accuracy outperforms raw speed. Set and keep precise delivery promises, expose real inventory, and treat returns, substitutions, and updates as brand moments.
Mobile is the organizing screen - fix the conversion gap - Prioritize sub‑second performance, native wallets, guest checkout, autofill, preference recall, and persistent carts. Earn the right to an app (high‑frequency, membership value); otherwise make mobile web great.
Retail media and measurement mature - Retail media keeps expanding, but budgets follow proof. Plan for incrementality measurement, clean‑room collaboration, and product‑level profitability (contribution margin after media, delivery, and returns).
Data, trust, and AI governance - Shift to first‑party/consented data, verified reviews, transparent returns, and clear AI disclosures. Low‑quality synthetic content (“AI slop”) and sponsored‑feeling results erode trust.
Sustainability moves to “greener by default” - Consumers still care, but expect businesses to carry more of the cost. Embed repair, refill, resale, lighter packaging, and plain‑language proof; avoid guilt‑based messaging.
Directionally; discovery becomes conversational, baskets get smarter (and more automated), and trust signals decide conversion. The shift will be uneven - fastest with younger, mobile‑first shoppers and in low‑risk, repeat categories. In the near term (12–24 months), we can expect:
Describe‑and‑decide discovery - Shoppers increasingly “ask an AI” to find, compare, and shortlist. 54% say AI chat helps them discover products they wouldn’t have found otherwise; 46% have changed which brands they consider because of an AI recommendation.
Tighter consideration, higher verification - AI narrows options faster, but shoppers still verify: 58% cross‑check AI recommendations elsewhere. Clear reviews, returns, delivery promises, and third‑party citations will be the conversion hinge.
Early agentic behaviors in repeat purchases - Automation starts where risk is low: grocery and household replenishment (the leading categories consumers are comfortable delegating). Think AI‑built carts, price checks, and “find me the best total delivered price.”
AI answers as a new gatekeeper - Visibility inside AI answers (often called Generative Engine Optimization) joins SEO and marketplace rankings as a must‑win. Structured product data, accurate availability/pricing, and credible citations matter.
In‑store assistance gets real - Consumers rank AI recommendations more important in‑store (74%) than online (58%). Expect wayfinding, stock checks, and side‑by‑side comparisons at the shelf via apps, kiosks, and smart screens.
Content scrutiny rises - Low‑quality synthetic content erodes trust: 49% lose trust when product images look AI‑generated; 48% skip content they suspect is synthetic. Use AI behind the scenes; keep product representation human‑grade.
