By Palesa Molukanele, Kamogelo Masenya, Eugene Enslin and Andre Marais
South Africa finally has a date for the national elections. It’s an opportunity for fed-up South Africans to use the democratic tools at their disposal to effect the change they want to see in the country. Between now and 29 May, political parties will be campaigning at full throttle, attempting to win the hearts and Xes of South African voters. (If you have a pothole on your street, now is the time to report it!) But data analysis reveals that political parties are going to need a lot more than glossy posters, pithy catchphrases and sweeping promises. That’s because they’re not only running against each other – their biggest rival is disillusionment.
Contradicting Sentiments
In 1994 hopeful South Africans stood for hours in queues that snaked across the nation to cast their ballots and usher in a new regime. Thirty years on, the picture is quite different.
According to market research using publicly available social media data, South Africans are viewing the upcoming elections through the lens, “2024 is our 1994”. They see the elections as an opportunity to address the many issues SA citizens face daily. It’s a long list, but by no means surprising: Load shedding, corrupt politicians, poor service delivery, a buckling healthcare system, water crisis, crime including gender-based violence, poor education, unemployment, cost of living including high food prices, the high cost of fuel and debt.
However, while many people are hopeful that this year’s elections will change the political landscape, the truth is that millions of young people have not registered, and of those who have, many will simply not show up on the day, or won’t know who to vote for, according to research and interviews conducted by the likes of Ipsos, EWN and IOL.
South Africans Avoiding the Polls
The numbers back this up. We have around 61 million people living in South Africa today. This is a 4% increase compared to when we last had national elections in 2019. Only 44% of this population has officially registered to vote this year – a 2% decline from 2019.
IEC historical data shows that around 70% of registered voters typically show up on the day. However, this number declined to 66% in 2019. And of those who do vote, 1% on average constitutes spoilt votes. When you run the numbers, this means less than a third of the population of our country will decide the future of our country.
How Political Parties Can Win the Race
A political party contesting South Africa’s national election in 2024 has to do a lot more than persuade people to vote for them. They first need to convert apathetic South Africans into voters and get those voters to the polls.
Show what’s possible: As much as young people want to believe in the power of voting to effect change, many of them have a conflicting narrative that voting doesn’t necessarily yield change. Thus, the statement, “I will not be voting because I don’t see the difference”. It makes sense that young people would be disillusioned with the election process – it’s hard to believe in something you’ve never seen. A 30-year-old South African or younger has not witnessed a ruling party change at national government level in their lifetime. What they have witnessed is a steady decline in infrastructure and service delivery and growing dissatisfaction among citizens that has failed to translate into any kind of meaningful statement at the polls. That sends the message that voting doesn’t work. A political party would need to restore faith in the democratic process by demonstrating its efficacy in a way that feels real and attainable. Not an easy task, but storytelling can be a powerful and persuasive tool when executed well.
Meet them where they are: When campaigning for voters, not just votes, parties need to rethink how they run their campaigns. A popular assumption is that the youth is often too nonchalant and disinterested to register, even while being subjected to socio-economic issues. That doesn’t mean they can’t be reached. In an extreme example, one social media influencer tricked her followers into registering by uploading what appeared to be a link to her latest YouTube video. When her followers clicked on the link, they landed on the Elections.org.za website. There is a missed opportunity to reach young people with the right message, at the right time, on the platform of their choice. Parties need to be surprising and engaging, and stand out against the political landscape with a brand identity that feels fresh. Voting TikTok challenge? Why not?
Demonstrate good values: The research shows that South Africans want a ruling party that will solve their problems. However, what constitutes a problem is subjective. The ideal political party will need to embody broader values such as ethical leadership, putting the interest of the people first and being willing to fight for its people. Getting people to believe in your values takes more than a good speech – they need to see those values in action.
Of course, citizens also have responsibilities. For starters, they need to educate themselves by considering the manifestos of political parties, listening critically to what party leaders are saying, and observing how party leaders behave in positions of power. They also need to familiarise themselves with policies and understand the short- and long-term effects of these policies. As one YouTuber noted: “The most dangerous person in South Africa, is an uniformed voter, because ignorant citizens vote for rubbish parties.”
Head of Data, Insights and Analytics Palesa Molukanele and Senior Analysts Kamogelo Masenya, Eugene Enslin and Andre Marais are part of the data team at VML South Africa.
DATA SOURCES
Brandwatch: A digital consumer intelligence platform which collects data from social media platforms, Blogs and News
Desktop research:
IEC historical data (website)
Research studies and news articles from Ipsos, EWN and IOL
